Sector update · Indonesia · October checkpoint
The Power Behind AI
Prices have moved. Capacity still needs delivery.
The next test of Indonesia's data-center investment story is delivery: usable power, commissioned IT capacity, customers and cash generation. This update checks the market prices and selected project evidence behind that test.
- Equity price cutoff
- 8 Oct
- 2026 closing observations from the retained IDX import
- Project evidence reviewed
- 9 Oct
- 2026 review date; individual announcements retain their own dates
Loading the dated observations.
Dated observations and source record
01 / Listed exposure
One theme, different price paths.
These are unadjusted IDR price changes from 24 September to 8 October. Dividends and trading costs are excluded. The baseline closes in the local IDX import match the September report's prices for all ten names. A theme label does not mean each company's revenue comes mainly from AI.
| Ticker | Exposure in the original report | 24 Sep 2026 | 8 Oct 2026 | Change |
|---|
Source: IDX via the retained Flowless import. Cached observations frozen for this edition; a fresh remote re-fetch was unavailable during review. The next trading session is not included.
Daily observations for the selected company
| Date | Close (Rp) | Price index |
|---|
The FX date matches this edition's equity cutoff. Imported equipment or dollar debt creates company-specific currency exposure; a reference rate alone does not measure its earnings impact.
02 / Capacity definitions
A larger pipeline still needs to become usable supply.
Cushman & Wakefield's market snapshots separate capacity already operating from capacity being built and capacity still planned. The operational baseline below belongs to H2 2025. The H1 2026 release supplies a newer pipeline observation, but no updated Jakarta operational total.
Under construction Planned. Bars use the same MW scale and exclude operational capacity.
| Source period | Operational | Construction | Planned | Pipeline |
|---|
The 322 MW operational observation is a Greater Jakarta H2 2025 baseline. It should not be presented as freshly verified operating capacity for H1 2026 or October. The later release labels its market Jakarta. Neither snapshot measures actual IT load, metered electricity use or an Indonesia-wide total.
03 / Selected project checkpoints
Read the delivery phase before the campus headline.
These primary announcements were reviewed on 9 October. Their original dates appear on each card. Several were already available when the September report was published. This is a reassessment of the evidence and the upcoming milestones, not a claim that all the announcements are new.
Selected checkpoints, not a complete project inventory. The reviewed releases do not establish commissioning at the review date. Campus totals, first phases and umbrella plans overlap in scope and must not be summed or added to the market pipeline.
04 / Investment interpretation
Watch the conversion from plans to cash.
For operators, the evidence that would strengthen the thesis is a dated service opening, disclosed delivered capacity, customer absorption and cash generation after expansion spending. A campus announcement by itself establishes none of those outcomes.
For industrial estates, the useful checkpoints are signed land sales, collections and remaining infrastructure commitments. For connectivity and power companies, look for contracts that identify the supplier, economics and delivery obligations. A nearby project is not enough to attribute future profit to a listed company.
Our interpretation remains conditional: more capacity under construction makes delivery evidence increasingly relevant. The price changes shown here do not establish better or worse project economics, and lower share prices alone do not establish cheap valuations.
The models retain their source dates. The September financial series, share counts, DCF and Monte Carlo assumptions remain in the original report. This supplement does not recalculate them using stale financial inputs.
The archived power calculator uses a Q3 electricity-tariff assumption. The PLN document list reviewed for this update did not establish a Q4 tariff. An October tariff should therefore not be inferred from that calculator.
For power, cooling and operating-cost scenarios, read AI Runs on Power and Water, which separates capacity, utilization, PUE and site-specific resource assumptions.
05 / Evidence and limits
Every observation has a date.
This supplement updates market prices and rechecks selected project milestones. It does not introduce company ratings or targets, refresh financial statements, or verify every project in the original atlas. Sources reviewed on 9 October 2026; data vintages are listed individually below.
Open the dated observations and source record · Read the 24 September assessment
Personal research for educational purposes. This report contains no investment recommendation, rating or price target.